天美传媒

China鈥檚 continued ascent this century is provoking a global rebalancing of geopolitical scales that could prove especially disorienting for Europe.

Stephen Green, the former CEO and chairman of HSBC, spoke to MBA students on the Barcelona campus about the implications and challenges of 鈥淎sia鈥檚 century.鈥� His central message was that economic and, arguably, cultural power is shifting east in what is a reemergence of historical world powers surpassed about 500 years ago by Europe, 鈥渁n artificial human construct鈥� that was then poor relative to China, Japan and India.

Green spoke at the latest edition of the Global Leadership Series alongside Professor Nuria Mas. While focusing on Asia, his conversation also touched on the geopolitical turbulence rocking France, Syria, Russia, the United States and Green鈥檚 native U.K. Green made a convincing case that the physical and virtual connectivity that now binds us all together, 鈥渇or good and for ill,鈥� also sows unique tensions.

The return to economic prominence of China and other eastern countries is no longer a story of cheap labor. 鈥淐hina now has perhaps the leading global competence in several areas, notably 5G technology,鈥� Green said. 鈥淭here is no reason to believe this won鈥檛 spread across other sectors.鈥� He said that traditional Western powers have long operated under the assumption that they 鈥渨ill always find higher ground to retreat to as the flood of Asian competition continues to rise.鈥�

Green 鈥渨ouldn鈥檛 bet on that.鈥�

He instead foresees China becoming 鈥渁n effective challenger to Europe in essentially every domain of economic activity.鈥� He鈥檚 also confident that its Belt and Road Initiative, a mammoth development strategy with 鈥渧ery few precedents in modern history,鈥� will play an enormous role in remaking the face of Eurasia.

Europe鈥檚 Fragmentation Is China鈥檚 Gain

The ongoing eastward shift will be pushed along by the current fragmentation of Europe, with Green鈥檚 鈥渃ountry about to make [the E.U.] weaker鈥� and the power triangle of the U.K., France and Germany being replaced by a French-German axis.

How this realignment fares across the continent is unclear, and will hinge on聽Emmanuel Macron鈥檚 effectiveness in France. Yet Green conceded that he finds it 鈥渄ifficult to be easily optimistic about Europe鈥檚 ability to position itself on the world stage given the rise of China and India and continuing relevance of America.鈥�

China and America, Green said, are both well aware of the E.U.鈥檚 splintering and game to take advantage of it. With Europe no longer the sort of fault line it was during the Cold War, America鈥檚 strategic interest in the continent has of course evolved.

And what of the political reality unfolding in the U.S.? Will China in its bid for superpower primacy be able to take advantage of Trump-era upheaval?

While the U.S. president has added an element of unpredictability, 鈥淥ne should never short America for very long. And the Chinese understand this fully.鈥�

Still, the most convulsive geopolitical political moment since World War II has the potential to defy expectations and dogma. Green noted the Korean peninsula, shipping lanes surrounding China and the China-dependent water supply of Southeast Asia as flash points that could radically unsettle the world order further still. There are also the complex geopolitics of Asia that, Green said, are 鈥渞ising and will continue to rise,鈥� thanks partly to the BRI, which has left India anxious.

Perhaps the safest bet is on China, despite the current slowing of its growth.

鈥淭oo many assume there will be a hard landing in China,鈥� Green said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛.鈥�