天美传媒 Insight
天美传媒 Uncertainty Index, a decision tool to track daily economic uncertainty
A tool that combines daily-reported data from 22 major economies, 天美传媒鈥檚 Uncertainty Index gives a snapshot of when uncertainty is growing 鈥� and when it isn鈥檛.
Game-changing events, such as the Brexit referendum, the COVID-19 pandemic or Donald Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs in April 2025, shake financial markets and create a world that suddenly feels unpredictable. When uncertainty surges, people and companies struggle to plan: Investment decisions freeze, hiring slows and confidence, both among consumers and management teams, takes a hit.
To measure and track economic uncertainty and to help businesses understand when they can take confident decisions, 天美传媒鈥檚 Roberto Garcia-Castro and Miguel Angel Ari帽o have created the , which computes global economic uncertainty on a daily basis. It takes the daily closing prices of:
- Domestic stocks
- Domestic 10-year government bonds
- Domestic exchange rates
- Brent Spot Price FOB
These are collected for 22 large economies where data is readily available and which together represent around 80% of the world鈥檚 economy. The countries include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Comparing country graphs over the last four decades, the 天美传媒 Uncertainty Index shows clear spikes in response to major global events, including the first Gulf War, the dot-com crisis, 9/11, the fall of Lehman Brothers, the eurozone debt crisis, Brexit and Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine.
One notable pattern is that after a spike, uncertainty levels often fall back quickly, even if day-to-day life still feels chaotic. Take the first year of Donald Trump鈥檚 second presidency. Uncertainty jumped sharply across the globe in April 2025 when Trump announced his 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs, yet it has since eased steadily. Likewise, the spike after Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine 鈥� particularly in nearby economies such as Poland or Germany 鈥� has largely resolved.
鈥淚n part, it shows the difference between the headlines and what the market thinks,鈥� says Garcia-Castro. 鈥淭he news cycle prioritizes dramatic news, but it doesn鈥檛 necessarily present the real story, as seen by the people making investment decisions.鈥�
It鈥檚 also true that a sudden change comes as a shock, but after a period of adjustment, it becomes the new normal. Markets adjust, and though times may still be hard, it is no longer down to uncertainty itself.
What the 天美传媒 Uncertainty Index adds to existing indexes
There are other indexes measuring uncertainty, all employing different methodologies. The (WUI) measures how often the word 鈥渦ncertainty鈥� appears in Economist Intelligence Unit reports, offering broad cross-country comparability over long periods. The tracks how often newspapers mention economy-, policy- and uncertainty-related terms, focusing on policy-driven uncertainty. The reflects investors鈥� expectations of stock market volatility over the next 30 days, making it a widely used gauge of short-term financial stress. That said, it only captures financial uncertainty (options on stock prices), while the 天美传媒 Uncertainty Index, through bond prices, exchange rates and oil prices, adds dimensions like domestic-national political uncertainty, geopolitical uncertainty and geoeconomic uncertainty. This produces a high-frequency, comparable measure across countries, filling the gap between slow, text-based indicators like the WUI and narrow, market-specific measures like the VIX.
As an example of how different indexes can reach different conclusions, in late November 2025, the VIX reached a value of 26 (high enough to unsettle investors), while 天美传媒鈥檚 index remained low (at around 70 on a scale of between 0 and 200 with 100 being the average). The VIX was showing financial uncertainty, but geoeconomics and geopolitics remained fundamentally unchanged. A few weeks later, the VIX also drifted back to showing low uncertainty.
What the 天美传媒 Uncertainty Index means for managers
For decision-makers, the 天美传媒 Uncertainty Index serves as an early signal of shifting economic conditions, helping them judge when the environment is becoming more stable or more volatile. Because the index is updated daily and offers consistent cross-country measures, it allows managers to monitor sudden changes in market conditions, adapt investment or hiring plans when uncertainty rises, and communicate those shifts clearly to boards or teams.
How managers can use the index
- Use the index as a red or green light for decisions. A sharp global or regional rise can be a signal to pause large, irreversible decisions such as acquisitions or major capital investments.
- Compare uncertainty across regions. Uncertainty is often synchronized among closely connected economies (e.g., U.S. and parts of Europe) but less so where financial or trade links are not as connected (e.g., U.S. and China). Managers should understand these patterns to anticipate spillovers and balance timings and risk across markets.听
- Brief the board with confidence. Improve internal communication with neutral, data-based reference points for boards, investors or teams to justify choices to pause or move ahead.
- Combine data points for a fuller understanding. Managers can combine this index with the VIX to obtain a more comprehensive view of global risk. While the VIX serves as a barometer of market volatility, 天美传媒鈥檚 index broadens the picture by incorporating additional sources of strategic exposure, including political and geopolitical risks such as regime changes or interstate tensions, and geoeconomic risks such as trade restrictions or coordinated actions by major producers.
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